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NFL Week 5 Betting Guide: Spread, moneyline, over/under picks

Although a few games are up in the air due to COVID-19 concerns, there’s already enough value to attack the Week 5 NFL slate. As always, I’ll be breaking down my favorite bets while weaving in a preview of exclusive data from BetQL, a web and app platform that simplifies the research process for sports bettors by equipping them with real-time line movements, value bets of the day, and meaningful team trends. So far, my recommendations have gone 9-3 (3-1 spread, 3-1 moneyline, and 3-1 O/U records), including a perfect 3-0 last week! 

We’ve been red hot at BetQL lately, as indicated by the fact that our three, four and five-star NFL bets have gone 59-39 (60.2 percent) over the past two weeks. That includes a 14-7 mark on four and five-star bets in Week 4!

WEEK 5 FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker

Let’s take a look at three Week 5 bets you should consider making.

All data presented is as of Tuesday morning. You can track all NFL line movement on BetQL’s Line Movement Dashboard.

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Spread pick of the week

Cowboys -9.5 vs. Giants 

The Cowboys (1-3) are 0-4 ATS, but this is the week that they’re going to turn that around. Sure, Dallas’ defense has allowed 39, 38 and 49 points, respectively, in consecutive weeks, and sure, the Browns just made them look silly. However, this Giants (0-4, 2-2 ATS) team is horrendous and arguably has the worst offense in the league. They’ve sputtered to 16, 13, nine and nine points, respectively, in their four losses, and due in part to quarterback Daniel Jones’ inability to protect the ball, New York’s offense might make Dallas’ defense look respectable. 

Per our Public Betting Dashboard, 58 percent of total bets have backed the Cowboys vs. the spread so far.

WEEK 5 PICKS ADVICE: Pick ’em pool | Survivor Pool

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Moneyline pick of the week

Colts -120 at Browns

Are the Browns for real? While this question has been asked for years and years, Cleveland is currently 3-1, coming off of a 49-38 victory in Dallas and having scored 35 and 34 points in their Week 2 and Week 3 victories, respectively. Losing running back Nick Chubb (knee) will undoubtedly hurt, but Cleveland is well-positioned with Kareem Hunt (arguably a better player than Chubb) now set to see a larger workload. With Odell Beckham Jr. coming off a breakout performance and Baker Mayfield finding comfort in the offense, this could finally be the year Cleveland takes a step forward.

However, both Hunt and Beckham are banged up, and Cleveland will undoubtedly be tested by a Colts defense that has allowed 11, 7 and 11 points in their past three games, respectively. BetQL’s model is giving Indy a 57.01-percent chance to win this matchup, which is a -132 implied moneyline. 

Per BetQL’s Sharp Picks Dashboard, 82 percent of total money wagered (compared to 56 percent  of total bets placed) is backing Cleveland’s moneyline, indicating that pro bettors are very high on them as a home underdog. While sharp bettors believe, I don’t…yet!

WEEK 5 DFS: Best stacks | Best values | Lineup Builder

NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Over/under pick of the week

Eagles-Steelers UNDER 44.5 Points

This is our free game of the week, and it currently features a five-star O/U bet. We are projecting a total of 41 points to be scored in this matchup, which is a product of our offensive and defensive grades for both teams. The Steelers have an A+ defensive grade and a D+ offensive grade, and the Eagles have a B+ defensive grade and a C- offensive grade. 

While we are projecting the Eagles to score 18 points, it should be very tough sledding for Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz. The Steelers already have 15 sacks, which is second in the NFL despite the fact that they have played three games when most other teams have played four. Pittsburgh’s 12.3-percent team sack rate is the best in the NFL, just ahead of the Eagles (10.37). While Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 in terms of protecting Ben Roethlisberger from being sacked, Philly has allowed an 8.05-percent sack rate, which ranks 23rd. 

This has the makings of a low-scoring, gritty, defensive-oriented game script, and the UNDER is the best bet.

You can find all updated NFL lines, spreads, and odds at BetQL!

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